Footloose and Forecast-free:

Abstract

The almost utopian state in which most people behave as if they were footloose and fancy-free has the potential to bring about a situation where transport planning no longer relies on forecasts. The type of decision-making that is prevalent in a society depends upon the kinds of information available. In modern, Western-type democracies, it is taken for granted that well- informed planning and decision-making are grounded in the reliable prediction of impacts. Therefore, if unlimited mobility undermines predictability, it poses a threat to public planning and democratic governance in the transport sector. This exploratory and somewhat speculative essay about a possible future analyzes the planning consequences of the ‘death-of-distance’ literature. It seeks to clarify just how planning might be transformed by the loss of consequential impact analysis. It is moreover suggested that the likely responses to mobility-induced unpredictability – private rule following and public planning rituals – would challenge modernist ideals.